Dr Mathew Burrows is the Counselor and Program Lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub. Prior to joining Stimson, he had a distinguished career in the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the last ten years of which he spent at the National Intelligence Council (NIC).
Dr Josef Braml is the Secretary General of the German Group and the European Director of the Trilateral Commission—an influential global platform for dialogue between America, Europe, and Asia. Previously, from 2006 to 2020, he worked at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
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In their new book “World to Come – The Return of Trump and the End of the Old Order“, Mathew Burrows and Josef Braml describe the dangers and opportunities of the newly emerging world order. By abandoning the security interests of Ukraine and Europe, US President Donald Trump is trying in vain to detach Russia from its strategic connection with China. Through its "maximum pressure" policy, Iran is increasingly becoming part of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea bloc, which opposes the US-led world order.
"Maximum Pressure" on Iran – Helps China and Russia
Trump's so-called strategy of "maximum pressure" on Iran has inadvertently strengthened the influence of Russia and China in the region. The harsh US sanctions have isolated Iran economically and forced it to rely more heavily on Russia and China. China is benefiting from US sanctions by buying Iranian oil at low prices. Iran sells over 90 percent of its crude oil to China, often through unofficial channels. China has signed a 25-year agreement with Iran that provides for significant investments in Iran's infrastructure and energy industry. This strengthens China's energy supply and economic position.
Western sanctions against Russia and Iran have prompted both countries to cooperate more economically and militarily. Russia could use Iran as a partner to strengthen its own energy policy and reduce US influence in the global energy market. Russia and Iran have also deepened their military cooperation, in particular through the exchange of weapons and technologies. Iran has supported Russia with drones and missiles during the Ukraine war. Russia, for its part, has indicated that it wants to help Iran enrich uranium.
Trump supports Israel and is considering military action against Iranian nuclear facilities if Iran develops nuclear weapons. Trump has offered to hold talks with Iran, but without abandoning the "maximum pressure" strategy. This could lead to an escalation if no agreement is reached. The danger is that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which would only set back Iran's timetable for obtaining nuclear weapons, could trigger a regional conflict in which the United States will be drawn. Saudi Arabia has warned that Iran would likely retaliate to any US-backed attack on Saudi’s oil facilities that would spike global oil prices worsening the global economic distress caused by Trump’s tariffs.
In the long term, Trump's short-sighted approach could promote the formation of an anti-Western bloc that shifts the global balance of power in favor of Russia and China. Iran is increasingly becoming part of the Russia-China-Iran-North Korea bloc, which opposes the US-led world order.
Exploiting Mistrust Between Russia and China?
Nevertheless, the Trump administration is trying to exploit the fact that Russia and China have historically been distrustful neighbors. Russia is uncomfortable acting as China’s "junior partner" and Trump is hoping to increase this mistrust by offering Russia economic and security policy alternatives.
Even if Trump were to lift Western sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, Russia will still depend on China since Europe will avoid any reliance on Russian energy for the foreseeable future. Beijing offers Russia a more stable relationship, and Russia can offer strategic advantages to the Middle Kingdom. As Arctic ice melts due to climate change, Russia wants to expand the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic, boosting Russia’s LNG exports and eventually cutting by almost half the transport time for Chinese goods headed to Europe. China is also active in polar research, describes itself as a country close to the Arctic and is working with Russia to build powerful icebreakers.
Putin is using Trump's security and economic interests in the Arctic to persuade him to make a favorable Ukraine deal. In expanding US ties, Russia is striving to bolster its independence, dialing back on its dependence on China.
Trump is seeking a quick end to the Ukraine war, especially through concessions to Russia, such as the recognition of territorial claims (for example, Crimea and Donbas), but it’s unclear that Putin will settle without a broader agreement on limiting US and NATO military support for Ukraine.
If a lasting ceasefire to the Ukraine war is reached, Trump will press the Europeans to ease Western sanctions against Russia but Brussels may hold off if the deal appeals unfavorable for Ukraine. Sanctions reduction would give Russia access to Western markets, investment and technology vital for fully exploiting Arctic energy. However, many US sanctions can only be lifted with Congressional agreement.
Trump could also help accommodate Russia on geopolitical issues, such as the reduction of US forces on Russia's borders but European NATO members will likely remain worried about Russian incursions into the Baltics and elsewhere and could use any growing military power to bolster border areas. Trump could thus strain relations with Europe and Ukraine – to Russia's advantage: Moscow has always tried to weaken transatlantic relations but wouldn’t lessen its strong Chinese ties in return.
Trumps Triangulation Hopes
Driving a wedge between Russia and China has a precedent from the Cold War, when the Soviet Union and China clashed, and Beijing worried about a Soviet nuclear attack. President Nixon, the anti-communist archenemy, seized the opportunity to open up to China and weaken Moscow.
Unfortunately, unlike Nixon, Trump does not have a deft strategic adviser like Henry Kissinger, to undermine the Russo-Chinese bond and insert the United States in-between. Unless a conflict breaks out between Moscow and Beijing, the chances of a split are nil, and the United States can’t easily replace China’s economic lifeline to Russia. Putin and Xi also share a distrust of the United States and see the West as decadent. Putin may hope for an improvement in relations with the United States to gain some leverage with China but realizes Trump’s successor will probably revert to being less Russia-friendly.
The Ugly Scenario: World War III
Instead, the Sino-Russian accord will likely be reinforced as the Sino-US rivalry grows. The United States and China are now clashing over tariffs which looks set to accelerate de-coupling, increasing the risk of military confrontation over Taiwan and the South China Sea. This scenario may occur if current trends are not effectively reversed or managed. A combination of military constraints, aggressive risk-taking, unrealistic expectations, and misperceptions could potentially lead to a Sino-US war, akin to how the European powers inadvertently initiated the First World War within a span of 40 days.
A copy of their book can be ordered here World to Come: The Return of Trump and the End of the Old Order
